In 2015, the Maldives passed an unusual constitutional amendment. The change allowed foreign ownership of territory in the Maldives territory. Specifically, the constitutional amendment allows foreigners who invest over $1bn to own land, provided that at least 70 per cent of land purchased is reclaimed from the sea. This limits the number of potential buyers. Both Saudi Arabia and China have expressed some interest. Both countries seem keen to develop infrastructure in the Maldives as a means of protecting oil shipments from the former to the latter.
Despite only around 400,000 people live there, the Maldives has an unusual recent political history. Briefly, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom was president from 1978 until 2008, his support peaking in 1983 at 95.6 per cent. He was widely accused of human rights abuses and corruption.
He lost the 2008 election to human rights activist, Mohamed Nasheed. Per capita – by some measures – the Maldives has provided most recruits to the Islamic State). Nasheed was ousted in 2012. He won most votes in the first round of an election the following year, but the Supreme Court annulled the vote and Abdulla Yameen, half brother of Gayoom, became president. Nasheed was subsequently convicted of terrorism for arresting a judge. After travelling to the UK for medical treatment, he sought and received asylum.
This is when things became interesting. In 2015, following an apparent assassination attempt against Yameen, the vice president along with 17 of his supporters were arrested. Yameen has actively courted investment from both China and Saudi Arabia. Tacit support from these two countries appears to have encouraged Yameen to further centralise power and sideline any opposition. Sino-Maldivian relations were further strengthened a couple of weeks ago when the Maldives became the second country in Asia to sign a free trade agreement with China after Pakistan. This move further sidelined India making her more unhappy with Yameen administration.
In Mach last year, Gayoom and Nasheed decided to team up against Yameen. They also called on India to intervene. And while it may be an unusual coalition, it would almost certainly win a free and fair election. It would also have a majority in parliament if various ousted MPs were reinstated.
And last week the Maldives Supreme Court ruled that that is exactly what should happen. It also ordered that political prisoners be released. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, Yameen ignored the call. Instead, yesterday, he introduced a state of emergency, ordered troops to blockade the Supreme Court building and arrested Gayoom.
Amid pressure to comply with the ruling unconditionally, Mr Yameen had declared a state of emergency on February 5 and subsequently arrested Chief Justice Abdulla Saeed, Judge Ali Hameed, Judicial Administrator Hassan Saeed and former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.
India along with Sri Lanka, the US, the UK and Germany and organisations including the Amnesty International and the UN Human Rights Council have voiced concerns over the Yameen government’s refusal to obey the Supreme Court’s order.
The main opposition which would hold a majority in parliament is is now calling on India to act, sending an envoy, backed by its military.
Now, its totally upto India whether to push Maldives in the open arms of China or Saudi Arabia or Western power or act as a facilitator to resolve the ongoing crisis of Maldives. Better if India would learn lessson from failure of ‘big brother’ foreign policy in Nepal.
